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Uptrend under pressure

by J ~ November 19th, 2009

If you have been reading this blog for the past few weeks you have noticed I have given out certain leading names with buy points.  I have followed some of those posts with caution on the overall market.  I would describe this as a negative divergence, and I am seeing more and more negative divergences in the market.  Here are a few divergences that I am seeing right now.

  • (AAPL: 194.12 -1.34) has NOT broken to new highs while the major market indices have gone to new highs.  (AAPL: 194.12 -1.34) has been a leading stock in the market.  Today, that stock broke down a little.  It was down over $5 on heavier than average volume.
  • (GS: 151.10 -3.06) is living BELOW it’s 50 day moving average.  This stock rallied into the 50 day moving average about 7 days ago and could not regain this average.  This is a leading stock as well and action has been less than stellar.
  • Volume has been extremely light as of late.
  • The financial sector (GS is a leading name of this sector) has lagged the overall market.
  • The small cap stocks are lagging market.  Look at the Russell compared to the S&P500.

Today was a distribution day in the market.  IBD changed their outlook to ‘uptrend under pressure’.  Here are a few comments from IBD.

Thursday’s session hampered a market that has been vacillating for the past couple of months, even as some top stocks broke out.

In the 36 trading sessions since October, IBD’s Market Pulse has noted a confirmed uptrend only 13 days.

It’s had the correction label for nine sessions. The rest of the time the market has been under pressure, the equivalent of a yellow light for buying stocks.

On Thursday, the uptrend that was confirmed only eight sessions ago, once again came under pressure. Three distribution days in the Nasdaq over the past six sessions were enough to change the market’s condition.

The first distribution day came three days after the Nov. 9 follow-through.

Historically, a distribution day that soon after a follow-through is a bad sign for an uptrend, though it isn’t always deadly.

Keep in mind that a change in the Market Pulse is neither a prediction nor a blanket recommendation. It is a description of the current market condition.

As IBD says – let’s put a yellow light on buying stocks.  If you do buy a stock, make sure there is a clear buy point and good fundamentals. 

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